INTERACTIVE STRESS TEST
How the tranche structure protects aUSD holders across different scenarios
Pool assumptions: $100M total — $60M aUSD lenders (senior), $40M staUSD (junior). Click a scenario.
Normal conditions
2022 rate shock
Extreme stress (5x intraday worst)
Full cascade failure
T-bill yield on senior ($60M × 4.3%)+$2.58MaUSD lenders
CLO yield on junior ($40M × 5.7%)+$2.28MstaUSD holders
Additional loop yield (5x on $40M)+$2.24MstaUSD holders
aUSD lenders earn 4.3% (T-bill rate). staUSD holders earn ~11.3% total. Both tranches paid in full. No liquidations. System operating as designed.
CLO NAV CHANGE
−2.64% intraday
CLO portfolio loss ($100M × −2.64%)−$2.64MstaUSD (junior)
aUSD lenders — principal protected?$60M intactYes — fully protected
staUSD NAV impact$40M → $38.94M−6.6% on junior only
Recovery timeline (historical)107 trading daysFull recovery
This is JAAA's worst ever intraday price drawdown scenario (2022). Note: on a full-year total return basis JAAA returned +0.53% in 2022 — still positive. The intraday -2.64% only matters if staUSD holders are force-liquidated at the worst possible moment. aUSD holders: completely unaffected, $1.00 maintained. staUSD holders: temporary intraday NAV dip of 6.6% on their junior position, recovered in 107 trading days. Annual yield still positive.
CLO portfolio loss ($100M × −13.2%)−$13.2MstaUSD (junior)
aUSD lenders — principal protected?$60M intactYes — still fully protected
staUSD NAV impact$40M → $26.8M−33% on junior
Junior buffer remaining26.8% of poolAbove 25% min — pause triggered
5x the worst intraday price dip JAAA has ever recorded (completely hypothetical as a sustained loss — the actual 2022 annual return was still +0.53%). aUSD holders: still fully protected. staUSD holders: −33% temporary loss on their junior position. New borrowing paused (buffer near 25% minimum). System still solvent. aUSD never impaired. For context: this scenario requires CLOs to sustain a loss larger than anything in their 30+ year history on a permanent basis.
CLO portfolio loss ($100M × −40%)−$40MstaUSD wiped out first
Junior buffer exhausted at−$40M lossstaUSD = $0
aUSD holders — principal protected?$60M exactlyBreakeven — peg intact
Context: what causes −40% CLO loss?Never happenedNot in 30yr history
Theoretical total failure of the junior tranche. Would require AAA CLO losses of 40% — which has never occurred in the 30+ year history of the CLO market, including the 2008 GFC where AAA tranches had zero defaults. At exactly this loss level, aUSD holders break even at $1.00. Beyond this point (loss > 40%), aUSD begins to depeg. This scenario requires a systemic structured credit collapse with no historical precedent.
LOSS WATERFALL — WHO ABSORBS WHAT AT EACH LOSS LEVEL
Junior tranche absorbs all losses up to 40% before aUSD is ever impacted